Patricia Justino is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies, and a development economist specialising in applied microeconomics. Her current research work focuses on the impact of violence and conflict on household welfare, the microfoundations of violent conflict and the implications of violence for economic development. Other research interests include the measurement of multidimensional inequality and poverty and their effects on social development and economic growth, the measurement and modelling of poverty (static and dynamic), the role of social security and redistribution on economic growth and household welfare and the impact of economic shocks on household income mobility.
Patricia has worked with several international agencies including the World Bank, UNDP, UNESCO and FAO. She is the Director of MICROCON and co-founder and co-director of the Households in Conflict Network. Since June 2010, Patricia convenes the Vulnerability and Poverty Reduction team cluster on Conflict, Violence and Development.

Research Interests

Development (General); Poverty; Security and Conflict; Social Protection; Conflict and Violence; Inequality; India; Vietnam; Brazil.

HiCN Working Papers Series


Riots and social capital in urban India

Patricia Justino,  Jean-Pierre Tranchant,  Alia Aghajanian

This paper explores the relationship between household exposure to riots and social capital in urban India using a panel dataset collected by the authors in […]


The Microeconomics of Violent Conflict

Philip Verwimp,  Patricia Justino,  Tilman Brück, 

In our brief review, we take stock of the emergence, in the last decade, of the “microeconomics of violent conflict” as a new subfield of […]


On the Legacies of Wartime Governance

Patricia Justino,  Wolfgang Stojetz, 

In conflict zones around the world, both state and non-state actors deliver governance at local levels. This paper explores the long-term impact of individual exposure […]


Governance Interventions in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries

Patricia Justino, 

This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the […]


Food Security, Peacebuilding and Gender Equality: Conceptual Framework and Future Directions

Patricia Justino, 

The main objective of this study is to generate knowledge and evidence-based, meaningful, and actionable recommendations to governments and other stakeholders, particularly international organizations and […]


Welfare Spending and Political Conflict

Patricia Justino,  Bruno Martorano

We study an age-old question in political economy: does government spending on welfare ensure peace? This question was at the heart of the European Welfare […]


Inequality, Distributive Beliefs and Protests: A Recent Story from Latin America

Patricia Justino,  Bruno Martorano

This paper analyses the role of perceptions of inequality and distributive beliefs in motivating people to engage in protests. The paper focuses on the case […]


Local Institutions and Armed Group Presence in Colombia

Ana María Ibáñez,  Patricia Justino,  Margarita Gáfaro

This paper investigates the causal impact of non-state armed groups on local institutions during the armed conflict in Colombia, and tests competing theoretical mechanisms that […]


Political Violence, Drought and Child Malnutrition: Empirical Evidence from Andhra Pradesh, India

Jean-Pierre Tranchant,  Patricia Justino,  Cathérine Müller, 

We analyse the combined effect of political violence and adverse climatic shocks on child nutrition. Instrumental variable models using longitudinal data from Andhra Pradesh, India, […]


Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys

Tilman Brück,  Patricia Justino,  Philip Verwimp,  Andrew Tedesco Alexandra Avdeenko

Violent conflict is a key obstacle to overall economic development and specifically to human development. Conflicts vary greatly in their nature – hence the impacts of conflicts […]


Research and policy implications from a micro-level perspective on the dynamics of conflict, violence and development

Patricia Justino, 

The last few years have witnessed an important shift in international policy focus to a growing consensus that development and poverty reduction efforts cannot be […]


Micro-level dynamics of conflict, violence and development: A new analytical framework

Patricia Justino,  Tilman Brück,  Philip Verwimp, 

Violent conflict is arguably one of the most important challenges facing the world today. The incidence of international and civil wars has decreased in recent […]


Nutrition, Governance and Violence: A Framework for the Analysis of Resilience and Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Contexts of Violent Conflict

Patricia Justino, 

Violent conflict affects the lives, livelihoods and health of almost 1.5 billion people in the world (World Bank 2011). The number of armed conflicts has […]


Quantifying the Impact of Women’s Participation in Post-Conflict Economic Recovery

Patricia Justino,  Cathérine Müller,  Ivan Cardona Rebecca Mitchell

Recent research has started to shed light on some of the complex mechanisms associated with the outbreak of conflict, including the emergence of violent collective […]


Households amidst urban riots: The economic consequences of civil violence in India

Jaideep Gupte,  Patricia Justino,  Jean-Pierre Tranchant, 

The objective of this paper is to uncover the determinants of riot victimization in India. The analysis is based on a unique survey collected by […]


Shared Societies and Armed Conflicts: Costs, Inequality and the Benefits of Peace

Patricia Justino, 

This chapter examines how the relationship between economic exclusion, inequality, conflict and violence shape the goal of establishing shared societies. The chapter discusses how this […]


Short- and Long-Term Impact of Violence on Education: The Case of Timor Leste

Patricia Justino,  Marinella Leone,  Paola Salardi, 

This paper analyzes the impact of the wave of violence that occurred in Timor Leste in 1999 on education outcomes. We examine the short-term impact […]


Violent Conflict and Human Capital Accumulation

Patricia Justino, 

This paper reviews and discusses available empirical research on the impact of violent conflict on the level and access to education of civilian and combatant […]


Remittances and Labor Supply in Post-Conflict Tajikistan

Patricia Justino,  Olga Shemyakina, 

This paper analyzes the impact of remittances on the labor supply of men and women in post-conflict Tajikistan. We find that on average men and […]


War and Poverty

Patricia Justino, 

The main objective of this paper is to systematically identify potential channels of transmission linking civil war and poverty that may lead to the persistence […]


Identifying Conflict and Violence in Micro-Level Surveys

Tilman Brück,  Patricia Justino,  Philip Verwimp,  Alexandra Avdeenko

The overall goal of the report is to increase the capacity of researchers and policy makers to identify comparatively, and across time, how individuals, households […]


The Impact of Armed Civil Conflict on Household Welfare and Policy Responses

Patricia Justino, 

This paper offers a framework for analysing the effects of armed conflicts on households and the ways in which households in turn respond to and […]


Poverty and Violent Conflict: A Micro-Level Perspective on the Causes and Duration of Warfare

Patricia Justino, 

This paper argues that endogenous mechanisms linking processes of violent conflict and household poverty provide valuable micro foundations to the ongoing debate on the causes […]


Carrot or stick? Redistributive transfers versus policing in contexts of civil unrest

Patricia Justino, 

Recurrent episodes of civil unrest significantly reduce the potential for economic growth and poverty reduction. Yet the economics literature offers little understanding of what triggers […]


On the Links between Violent Conflict and Chronic Poverty: How Much Do We Really Know?

Patricia Justino, 

A large proportion of the world population is affected by widespread violence and instability. The majority lives in poor countries in Africa, Asia and Latin […]


Poverty Dynamics, Violent Conflict and Convergence in Rwanda

Patricia Justino,  Philip Verwimp, 

Civil war and genocide in the 1990-2000 period in Rwanda – a small, landlocked, densely populated country in Central Africa – have had differential economic […]


Redistribution, Inequality and Political Conflict

Patricia Justino, 

This paper analyses the relationship between redistributive policies and civil unrest. This relationship is modelled in a discrete two-period recursive model. Key theoretical assumptions and […]