Working Papers


How to conduct impact evaluations in humanitarian and conflict settings

Aysegül Kayaoglu,  Ghassan Baliki,  Dorothee Weiffen,  Tilman Brück,  Melodie Al Daccache

Methodological, ethical and practical challenges make it difficult to use experimental and rigorous quasi-experimental approaches to conduct impact evaluations in humanitarian emergencies and conflict settings […]


Conducting (Long-term) Impact Evaluations in Humanitarian and Conflict Settings: Evidence from a complex agricultural intervention in Syria

Aysegül Kayaoglu,  Ghassan Baliki,  Tilman Brück, 

The number of vulnerable people in humanitarian emergencies worldwide is increasing due to the rising frequency and intensity of risk exposure. At the same time, […]


The Protective Role of Index Insurance in the Experience of Violent Conflict: Evidence from Ethiopia

Tekalign Sakketa,  Dan Maggio, John McPeak

Droughts are among the leading causes of livestock mortality and conflict among pastoralist populations in East Africa. To foster climate resiliency in these populations, Index […]


State-Based Conflict and Entrepreneurship – Empirical Evidence

Wim A. Naudé,  Tilman Brück,  Ernesto Armorós

This paper investigates the relationship between state-based conflict and entrepreneurship. From a survey of the existing literature, we formulate two hypotheses: (1) state-based conflict has […]


Rebel Governance and Development: The Persistent Effects of Distrust in El Salvador

Lelys Dinarte Diaz,  Sandra Rozo,  Antonella Bandiera, Juan Miguel Jimenez, Miara Micaela Sviatschi

How does rebel governance affect long-term development? Rebel forces have controlled territory and imposed their own institutions in many countries over the past decades affecting […]


Cash and Conflict – Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger

Dominic Rohner,  Patrick Premand

Conflict undermines development, while poverty, in turn, breeds conflict. Policy interventions such as cash transfers could lower engagement in conflict by raising poor households’ welfare […]


Violent conflict moderates food security impacts of agricultural asset transfers in Syria: A heterogeneity analysis using machine learning

Dorothee Weiffen,  Ghassan Baliki,  Tilman Brück, 

Agricultural interventions are one of the key policy tools to strengthen the food security of households living in conflict settings. Yet, given the complex nature […]


How Peace Saves Lives: Evidence from Colombia

Mounu Prem,  Juan F. Vargas,  Sergio Perilla, and Miguel E. Purroy

The victimization of civilians and combatants during internal conflicts causes large socioeconomic costs. Unfortunately, it is not clear whether peace negotiations can significantly reduce this […]


Conflict Victimization and Civilian Obedience: Evidence from Colombia

Gustav Agenman, 

In this study, I investigate how conflict victimization influences civilians’ likelihood of (dis)obeying armed actors, a behavioral tendency which I elicit through a lab-in-the field […]


Sending peace home?! The effect of political favoritism on conflict

Kerstin Unfried,  Andreas Kammerlander

Bringing the model by Choi (2014) to a spatial context, we investigate and assess the link between political favoritism and internal conflict. In particular, we […]


(Dis)Trust in the Aftermath of Sexual Violence: Evidence from Sri Lanka

Alina Greiner,  Maximilian Filsinger

Does exposure to sexual violence during conflict affect ethnic group trust post-war? Despite the prevalence of sexual violence, we know surprisingly little about its social […]


Do Refugees with Better Mental Health Better Integrate? Evidence from the Building a New Life in Australia Longitudinal Survey

Hai-Anh Dang,  Trong-Anh Trinh, & Paolo Verme

Hardly any evidence exists on the effects of mental illness on refugee labor outcomes. We offer the first study on this topic in the context […]


Hidden Costs of War: Evidence from Nepal’s Maoist Insurgency

Haikun Zhan, 

This paper uses a unique longitudinal dataset to examine the costly behavioral changes adopted by agricultural households in response to the 1996–2006 Maoist insurgency in […]


Undead Past: What Drives Support for the Secessionist Goal of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in Nigeria?

Daniel Tuki, 

Although the secessionist conflict in Nigeria’s Eastern Region has persisted for over two decades and become increasingly violent, no study has, to the best of […]


The Effect of Violent Conflict on the Socioeconomic Condition of Households in Nigeria: The Case of Kaduna State

Daniel Tuki, 

The incidence and intensity of violent conflict in Nigeria have been rising steadily since 2016. However, the states across the country are not equally affected. […]


This Is a Man’s World: Crime and Intra-Household Resource Allocation

María Hernandez-de-Benito, 

Exposure to community violence is a pervasive development challenge. I study the effects of violent crime on intra-household resource allocation and bargaining power exploiting the […]


Conflict and Girl Child Marriage: Global Evidence

Caroline Krafft,  Diana Jimena Arango, Amalia Hadas Rubin, and Jocelyn Kelly

Child marriage has lasting negative health, human capital, and welfare consequences. Conflictsettings are characterized by a number of complex changes that can potentially increase the […]


Mobile phone access and insurgent violence: Evidence from a radio wave propagation model in Afghanistan

Robert Gonzalez, 

This paper examines the impact of mobile phone coverage on insurgent violence. In theory, access to coverage can lower violence by increasing the flow of […]


Terrorism and child mortality: Evidence from Africa

Max Schaub,  Daniel Meierrieks

How does terrorism affect child mortality? We use geo-coded data on terrorism and highly spatially disaggregated data on child mortality to study the relationship between […]


Fighting Covid-19 amidst Civil Conflict: Micro-level evidence from Burkina Faso

Philip Verwimp,  Mohammad H. Sepahvand

How does violent conflict affect the spread of Covid-19? In this paper we analyze how violent conflict influences the adoption of preventative measures and infection […]