Disentangling the Nexus of Food Security, Conflict and Heightening Climate Extremes in Somalia

This paper aims at disentangling the mutual links between conflict, drought and food security
in Somalia, a country severely affected by climate hardships and suffering from multiple food
security crises and continuing situations of conflict. The analysis is conducted using various
indicators for food security and on different sub-national aggregation levels. This study uses
monthly regional and district level data, combining geo-referenced drought data with information
on conflict from the joined ACLED-PRIO database and other location-specific variables. Contrary
to livestock district prices where increasing conflict effects are identified, the measured effect
of conflict on food security using normalized maize-sorghum district prices is limited. Conflict
seems to have a bigger effect on anthropometric food security indicators. An increasing effect
of one-sided, intrastate, and low-intensity conflict on the percentage underweight individuals is
found on the regional level, and this effect remains when controlling for drought or drought
shocks. In addition, positive drought impacts for pastoral livelihoods are encountered, while for
riverine livelihoods both excessive rainfall as well as excessive drought have a deteriorating effect,
suggesting a non-linear relationship between drought and food security outcomes. At the same
time, conflict has a small linear increasing effect on the ratio of rural populations in situations of
humanitarian emergency and famine, while the evidence is less conclusive for urban populations.

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