Conflict in Ethiopia: The Impact of Precipitation and Its Transmission Mechanism

Abstract

In this paper we examine the impact of precipitation variations on the probability of conflict in Ethiopia using subnational data at 0.5×0.5 decimal degrees resolution for the period 1997 to 2013. We find that lower precipitation levels, after accounting for the long-term average, are associated with higher probability of conflict. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications. The impact of precipitation on conflict remains significant for intra-state conflict but loses significance for non- state conflict. Moreover, using a two-stage estimation method we find evidence for the hypothesis that precipitation affects conflict through affecting total production levels.

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